The Armchair Intelligentsia Blog

I'm taking a little break from postings i'll still be sharing stuff everyone once in a while but at least for now it won't be daily

 
President Obama -Our worst president ever- Combining the worst of W and the worst of Socialism
  • How Congress Will Steal the Recovery
  • Obama's Doctor Knocks ObamaCare- 6/19
  • Obama invokes Jesus more than Bush- 6/10
  • The Roots Of Liberalism- 6/05
  • Is Obama Another Jimmy Carter?- 5/26
  • Obama's Deeds Vindicate Bush- 5/22
  • President Obama's troubling mantra: In debt, we trust - 5/15
  • Unions vs. Taxpayers - 5/14
  • US to borrow 46 cents for every dollar spent - 5/12
  • Quick fix today, crisis tomorrow in Obama's White House - 5/12
  • Obama's First Debacle? - 5/04
  • Obama's Liberal Arrogance Will Be His Undoing - 4/29
  • Obama more popular than his policies, poll shows - 4/27
  • Obama: The Grand Strategy - 4/24
  • High Unemployment States Have High Income Taxes or High Unionization or Both. - 4/22
  • The Case for a Federalism Amendment - 4/23
  • A World Of Trouble For Obama - 4/20
  • President of Everything - 4/17
  • The fiscal hole that must be filled - 4/05
  • Dem hypocrisy will come back to haunt - 3/18
  • The Obushma Spending Record - 3/17
  • Obama's policies have made the recession worse - 3/11
  • The Liberaltarian Jackalope - 3/11
  • The Sleight of Hand Behind Obama's Agenda - 3/06
  • The budget reveals the liberal Obama - 3/01
  • Back to Carter - 2/22
  • The ‘Liberaltarianist’ Folly - 2/20
  • Obama Worship and the Herd Mentality - 2/13
  • The Return of Welfare As We Knew It - 2/10
  • The Bushification of Barack Obama - 1/28
  • Obama's Middle East challenge - 1/28
  • Going Dopey On Infrastructure - 1/23
  • U.S. Congress World's Top Risk in 2009 - 1/12
  • Identity Crisis - 1/07
  • The Population and the Popular Vote - 12/01
  • Dems vs. Dems in new Congress - 11/25
  • Obama wrestles with Guantanamo problem - 11/11
  • Reckless Georgia - 11/11
  • The future under President Obama - 11/10
  • Will Barack Obama be another Bill Clinton? - 11/10
  • Schwarzenegger urges GOP to move beyond ideology - 11/10
  • Who Is the Working Class, Anyway? - 4/14
  • US election diary: The race card
  • Luke Skywalker v Darth Vader
  • The Inconvenient Truths of 2008
  • Change is coming -- to your tax bill
  • Obama the Messiah of Generation Narcissism
  • Special Reports - My Spin
  • Lebanon: One Year On
  • Stalin, Mao And … Ahmadinejad?
  • House OK's Irap Pullout Deadline
  • Libertarians emerge as a force
  • A Military That Reflects the Red-Blue Divide?
  • When did the Republicans give up on their principles?
  • How to move faster than the speed of light
  • Don't bring gender into the debate
  • Sheehan resumes war protest near Bush's ranch (bitch)
  • The end of cowboy diplomacy - Why the 'Bush Doctrine' no longer works for Bush administration
  • Israel accuses Hamas of 'terror escalation' after school attack.
  • Can Daily Kos Control Dems? - Or should they even try
  • Illegal Status Hinders Mexican Voting Bloc
  • Reaction to Court Ruling Over Guantanamo
  • Flagwavers - a fable
  • Bush Condemns Report on Bank Records
  • Jon Stewart, Enemy of Democracy?
  • It's Time to Leave--RIGHT NOW (I don't think so but thats just me)
  • Are Conservative Republicans Now America's Permanent Ruling Class?
  • White Guilt, Deciphered
  • European Nations May Give Iran a Reactor
  • 4th Generation Warfare
  • Important Reports/Stories
  • How the Fed Works
  • How Congress Will Steal the Recovery
  • How to Prepare for the End of Social Security
  • “Conservatives” Are Single-Largest Ideological Group
  • The Straw Men of Social Security
  • What is Driving Rising Healthcare Costs?
  • Who Controls the Internet?
  • Is The U.S. Government Too Big To Fail?
  • Financial Health of Social Security, Medicare Worsens in Past Year
  • US to borrow 46 cents for every dollar spent
  • GM Bankruptcy Probable as Obama Shields UAW Benefits
  • Worries Rise on the Size of U.S. Debt
  • the joe the plumberization of the gop
  • What is nationalization?
  • The Solution to the State Fiscal Crisis: A Five Year Balanced Budget?
  • Trillion-Dollar Spree Is Road to Ruin, Not Rally
  • Political Change Haven’t Shifted Public’s Ideology Balance
  • GM's Plan: Subsidize Our 48-Year-Old Retirees
  • The Trouble with Canadian Healthcare
  • Welfare Reform, Phase Two
  • A Short History of the National Debt
  • Bailouts: The Ultimate Double Standard
  • The Libertarian Moment
  • Making the rich poorer doesn't make everyone else richer
  • Paying the price for cotton
  • The Putin Doctrine
  • Our weakening country
  • Why terror thrives
  • Our Broken Senate
  • Will gay rights trample religious freedom?
  • Scientists From Around the Globe Join ABC News in a Forum on Surviving the Century
  • Moving Toward Energy Rationing
  • Parenting The Palestinians
  • The Coming Tax Bomb
  • Americans and Europeans on religion, happiness, government, and war
  • Democrats and the Economy
  • How to Tackle the Entitlement Crisis
  • Democrats and Our Enemies
  • Bill Clinton, the one-man steamroller
  • What’s Left for Government to Do?
  • Saying No to CoerciveCare
  • Bashing NAFTA misses real reason for factory job losses
  • Crisis Intervention in Housing Finance
  • Culture of Success
  • The Costs of Crime
  • Why Radical Islam Just Won’t Die
  • The AIDS Conspiracy Handbook
  • That Old Isolationist Tug
  • Competition and free trade key to prosperity
  • Let's Get America Booming Again
  • Vacationing in Hugo Chávez's Bolivarian Paradise
  • Scotland Yard: Bomb blast killed Bhutto
  • Present at the Destruction
  • The Whys of Spies
  • What’s Left for Government to Do?
  • You Said What? A happy history of lies and propaganda
  • An Open Letter to America's Rich People
  • It’s the Partisan Economy, Stupid
  • If Huckabee Is Dean, Who Is Kerry?
  • The Mother of All Elections
  • How the Private Sector Can Improve K-12 Education
  • Misreading the Iran Report
  • Plan B For Pelosi And Reid
  • Good news from Iraq
  • Is the U.S. Corporate Tax in the Laffer Zone?
  • High income taxes in Denmark worsen a labor shortage
  • Race, IQ and Education
  • World not running out of oil, say experts
  • The World's Biggest Industry
  • Peak Oil Again?Is "social meltdown" imminent?
  • Crime, Drugs, Welfare—and Other Good News
  • The Past, Present, and Future of Neoconservatism
  • The Trouble with Taxing the Young
  • Wealth and Nations
  • A Nation of Christians Is Not a Christian Nation
  • African Conflicts Cost Billions
  • Libertarians Rising
  • The US is a great place to be anti-American
  • Bush not the only problem
  • Showtime for Sarkozy
  • Making Sense of Income Inequality
  • The Health of the Nation: State By State
  • Government and Health Care: The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly
  • David vs. Goliath - Welfare Reform
  • John R. Bolton - The Flaws In the Iran Report
  • Murdoch Is No Threat to Democracy, but Media Protectionism
  • The Allure of Tyranny
  • Putin's Reaganesque Victory
  • Knight's Move
  • Chavez revolution takes hit in election
  • Flat tax for middle class
  • No Money, No Justice
  • Crime, Drugs, Welfare—and Other Good News
  • Why not give cell phones to students for doing well in school?
  • What Makes a Terrorist
  • The Free Clinic Movement
  • Why actors and models love to hang out with Hugo Chávez
  • Stop 'Making a Difference'
  • The War Was Right, the President Was Wrong
  • What are 'Hollywood values'?
  • Sarkozy ready to battle the workers
  • The History of the Chinese Government
  • What Makes a Democrat or Republican?
  • Abortion: A Legal or Political Issue?
  • Key Dates in Iraq War
  • Why they should stay
  • MoveOn's McCarthy moment
  • Why It’s So Hard to Win
  • Osama's Vision of the Future
  • The Foreign Policy Similarities Between Ancient Rome and Modern America
  • The Partitioning of Iraq
  • America agonises over the pitfalls of staying in Iraq—and of leaving
  • The reality of Iraq's many armies
  • The Many Enemies of George Bush
  • The Decline and Fall of Declinism
  • Which Iraq War Do You Want To End?
  • Who Lost Iraq?
  • Reforming France's Welfare State
  • The United States Patriot Act
  • Events Leading to the Second Persian Gulf War in Iraq
  • To save America, we need another 9/11
  • Imbalance: The U.S. Supreme Court, Its History, Power, and Proper Role
  • The Pros and Cons of Government Run Education
  • Social Crisis: Impending Disaster for Social Security and How We Can Fix It
  • Private Sector Healthcare Can Also Be 'Universal'
  • Is 2008 a Change Election?
  • If the Democrats want to fire Alberto Gonzales, why give him massive new eavesdropping powers?
  • Why Do They Hate Us?
  • Sicko’s Box Office Numbers are Fuzzy, Too
  • The Universal Distraction
  • How to Get Ron Paul Elected as Republican Presidential Candidate
  • The Free Vermont Secessionist Movement - A Counterpoint
  • The Left's "Inequality" Obsession
  • The Truth About America's Schools
  • Myths and Realities of the George Bush Presidency
  • The epic narcissism of Cindy Sheehan
  • The Ironic Collapse of John McCain
  • Fair Taxes? Depends What You Mean by ‘Fair’
  • Wall Street Populism
  • Where Michael Moore is Wrong
  • Bin Laden’s 1998 Atomic Message & the Necon Dream
  • Libertarians and the War
  • The New York Times Surrenders
  • The Most Controversial Presidential Pardons Ever
  • Freedom and Benevolence Go Together
  • Blissfully Uneducated
  • The New Myths About Inequality
  • Bush: Naturally, Never Wrong
  • Court Dismisses Lawsuit Against U.S. Wiretapping
  • Bush's Flawed Historical Vision
  • Grand Strategy for a Divided America
  • Osama Bin Missing: Who's Tried Hardest to Tackle Top Terrorist?
  • The rise and rise of Hamas
  • 'What If...'
  • Democrats vs Republicans
  • Protecting Your Paycheck
  • Separatist graduations proliferate at UCLA
  • The Age of Cynicism
  • The GOP's Fading Populism
  • Free Speech and Double Standard
  • Unfairenheit 9/11
  • Another Supply-Side Revolution Is Needed
  • Despotic Populism Is On the March
  • Evolution and religion
  • Schools and race-Still separate after all these years
  • Lazy, Job-Stealing Immigrants?
  • The Return of the Idiot
  • Your War, Not Mine
  • Are the Democrats and Bushies playing good cop/bad cop with the Iraqis?
  • Decline and fall of the neocons
  • Pretty bad – but not Jimmy Carter bad
  • The U.S. Seen Through Muslim Eyes
  • Decline and fall of the neocons
  • Seeds of Intellectual Destruction
  • Race Through a Liberal Lens
  • The neocons have finished what the Vietcong started
  • The (Not So) Infallible
  • Republicans of '94 revolution reflect on '06
  • Beyond Hegemony
  • ISG Prescribes Vietnam All Over Again
  • In class war, all lose: Yet it’s all Dems offer
  • Why is it always about Israel?
  • Even If We Leave Now, We'll Be Back
  • Calming an anxious middle class
  • What Comes After the Retreat
  • Doctors turn to aborted fetus to save boy's life
  • Get rid of the labels
  • Olmert's apparent nuclear admission
  • The Madness of Jimmy Carter
  • Counternarratives and the Grunt
  • Al Qaeda for the Good Guys: The Road to Anti-Qaeda
  • When the Media's Right
  • Humanitarian aid: winning the terror war
  • Hitler's Mideast helpers
  • The Peace Party vs. the Power Party
  • Iraq stops Bush from staging Reagan-style revival
  • The myth of the big bad drug companies
  • The Looming Regional Mideast War
  • The world may slowly be turning into the Land of China
  • Lessons From the Class Of '48: Ambition, Comity
  • What the Dictators Can't Stop
  • While You Were at War . . .
  • Only stupid, sadistic dictators hang… and Saddam was both
  • What the Real-Wage Pessimists Are Missing
  • The Fight for the Latin Left's Soul
  • Iraq's Natural State
  • Why Be a Conservative Libertarian?
  • The Knee-Jerk Opposition
  • Cafeteria Catholicism and the Minimum Wage
  • How Baby Boomers Are Robbing Our Grandchildren
  • Reaganism Cannot Define Conservatism
  • What Scares Iran’s Mullahs?
  • Why the U.S. Can't Win Iraq's Civil War
  • Religion, Government, and Civil Society
  • Iran Will Regret Its Nuke Program; Here's How
  • Hayek and Fusionism
  • Bush's "Nixon to China" Moment
  • The Leadership of George W. Bush: Con & Pro
  • A Short History of Health Care
  • The Left Still Doesn't Get It -- Even After KSM Confession
  • Slavery apologies debated across U.S.
  • Slouching Toward Socialized Medicine?
  • 2008: The Battle for a Generation
  • In a year of sanctions, international aid to Palestinians grew to more than $1.2 billion
  • The New Uncontrollable Campaign
  • Getting right with the Right isn't always wrong!
  • Libertarians' silver lining
  • Who Pays America's Tax Burden, and Who Gets the Most Government Spending?
  • Anger Is All The Rage
  • Illegal immigrants filing taxes more than ever
  • The Coming Party Realignment
  • The Rich and the Rest
  • Senate committee takes steps to improve accountability for “pork barrel spending”
  • Edwards & the Arrogance of the Entitled
  • The 10 worst jobs in America
  • Info
    Seed Newsvine More blogs about politics.
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    Is A 2010 Republican Comeback Really Impossible?
    Tuesday, May 12, 2009
    By Sean Trende

    President Obama's popularity ratings are currently robust, ranging from the mid-50s to high-60s. However, they are also not that unusual for this point in a Presidency. As David Paul Kuhn has illustrated nicely, Obama's approval ratings at the end of his first 100 days were pretty much in the middle of the pack for modern Presidents. Some Presidents with approval ratings lower than Obama's have had successful first midterms (Bush II, Nixon), while some who had approval ratings higher than Obama's have had rough first midterms (Reagan, LBJ).

    To be sure, everything Obama touches seems to turn to gold, and the GOP's assaults on him have fluctuated between ineffective and laughable. This is reminiscent of how Democrats banged their heads against a wall with the Bush Administration for two years after 9-11, amazed that he retained approval ratings of over 60%. A slow economic recovery, blossoming budget deficits, corporate scandals involving Bush associates, a flailing stock market, none of these seemed to have much of an impact on Bush's approval rating. Of course, eventually these things did, but for a very long time, President Bush - like President Obama today - seemed to be coated in Reaganesque teflon.

    Democrats didn't really land a knockout blow on Bush until Katrina, but it is clear the Democrats' assaults on Bush's intelligence and competence took their toll over time, and put them in a position to maximize their gains when New Orleans flooded. The first time Democrats said that Bush lied about Iraq and mismanaged the war, no one paid attention. The hundredth time, people called them fools (who were consigning themselves to permanent minority status with their extremist views). The thousandth time, people stopped and thought about it. The ten thousandth time, they ended twelve years of GOP control of Congress. And it wasn't just Iraq and lies; Democrats threw the kitchen sink at President Bush over the course of six years. Some things worked, others didn't, but taken together it was enough.

    The lesson for Republicans is that you eat a donkey the same way you eat an elephant: one bite at a time. While GOP attacks on Obama aren't gathering much traction now, it is never too early to start a meme. And the attacks will likely take their toll eventually. Almost every President's approval ratings dip below 50% at some point in his first term (the one exception is Eisenhower, and Obama, for all his charms, didn't plan D-Day). To put this in further perspective, if Obama is able to maintain his 100-days approval rating of 63% in Gallup, he would enter the midterm election with the fourth-highest approval rating of any President in his midterm election since Roosevelt (the highest was Bush in 2002, at about 68%).

    So what could possibly threaten Obama's soaring approval ratings? As British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan is said to have responded when he was asked a similar question by a young reporter: "Events, dear boy. Events." What if a 9-11 style attack occurs in 2010? Presumably the "rally around the flag effect" would inure to the Democrats' electoral benefit. But what if ten 9-11 style attacks occur? At that point, the public may decide that Democrats are ineffective and unable to keep them safe. What if Iran gets a nuke? What if Pakistan collapses? What if Obama gets bin Laden? What if the economy roars ahead? What if Paul Krugman is correct, and we are not near the bottom of the recession? We just don't know enough at this point to rule out the possibility of a collapse in Obama's approval ratings, though again, we shouldn't interpret a mere possibility as a statement of fact.

    more...
    posted by citizen jerk @ 10:43 AM  
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    Big Oil & Alternative Fuels
  • 4 Ways to Ride Oil's Ups and Downs
  • The real reason ethanol won't—and can't—cut American oil imports
  • Let the Drilling Begin
  • The Corn Ethanol Juggernaut
  • Why Does Gasoline Cost So Much?
  • The Good News About Energy
  • The Coming Energy Wars
  • Quest for Oil:Where to LookIs the Question
  • Food Report Criticizes Biofuel Policies
  • Global Hot Spots of Hunger Set to Explode
  • Biofuels getting blame for high food prices
  • U.S. to give $200M in food aid
  • Food inflation, riots stir concern
  • Bush officials defend ethanol as food prices rise
  • US Federal Reserve releases report saying labor, energy are 42 percent cost of food, farm inputs 19 percent, as “blame battle” rages over food prices
  • The cost of green tinkering is in famine and starvation
  • The rise of the new energy world order
  • Americans now spend a larger share of their income on energy than at any time since 1986
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